Pedro Magalhães

Margens de Erro

Hamas

Posted March 2nd, 2006 at 10:58 am4 Comments

E já que estamos nesta onda, há um texto imperdível na New York Review of Books sobre a vitória do Hamas: este, de Hussein Agha e Robert Malley. Independentemente dos pressupostos de partida ou das simpatias ou antipatias dos autores, é um texto exemplar do ponto de vista da análise política: não se conforma com uma única banalidade que saia da boca dos "comentadores" ou dos agentes políticos. Procura ver o que está "por detrás". Pergunto-me se, por vezes, não estará a ver demais. Mas tem, por exemplo, uma explicação plausível para algo que, numa das sondagens anteriores, me deixou perplexo. Isto:

Q12. The PA is committed to the option of political negotiations with Israel. Do you believe that the new government headed by Hamas has to continue with the political negotiations, stop the political negotiations and should adopt other options?
To continue with the political negotiations: 66.3%
Stop the political negotiations: 29.6%
No answer: 4.1%


Q15. Some believe that the negotiations are the best path to achieve our national goals, whereas others believe that the armed struggle is the best way to do so. Which option is the closest to your opinion?
Through Negotiations: 38.8%
Through armed struggle: 17.9%
Through negotiations and armed struggle: 40.3%

Don't know: 2.3%
No answer: 0.7%

A resposta pode ser esta:

Because of all it did, said, and stood for, a vote for Hamas became one way to exorcise the disgrace. The Palestinian Authority had been unable to protect its people, and Hamas evidently could do no better on that score. But though its brutal attacks on Israelis did not provide safety, they provided revenge, and, for many Palestinians, in the biblical land of primal urges, that was second best. While not condoning every Hamas operation, for vast numbers of Palestinians, the Islamists' current position on Israel and the use of violence against it also rang as a truer, more authentic expression of their feelings. In this, Prime Minister Sharon displayed greater discernment than the Israeli left: deep down, most Palestinians, though ready to accept Israel's existence, have not accepted its historical legitimacy; though supportive of a mutual cease-fire and peace agreements, they will not relinquish the right to fight for their land.

E fazendo uma ponte um bocado enviesada com este post na Praia, há uma sensação que sempre tenho quando leio artigos como este, muito bom, mas não especialmente melhor que muitos outros que encontramos regularmente na NYRB, na Atlantic Monthly, no Economist, no Times Literary Supplement, só para falar das coisas que leio menos irregularmente: é que, desculpem-me, mas tenho sérias dúvidas que haja um único português com o conhecimento de causa e a qualidade suficientes para escrever um artigo como este. Como este ou, repito, como muitos outros que encontramos todos os meses em publicações como as que mencionei. Voltei a pensar nisto quando li, na autobiografia da Maria Filomena Mónica, a história do artigo para a Atlantic sobre a revolução portuguesa que o Vasco Pulido Valente nunca chegou a enviar.

Para responder mais directamente ao post do Ivan: para se ser capaz, é preciso ser-se ou muito ignorante ou muito descarado. E peço que não vejam isto como um ataque à Atlântico ou às pessoas que lá escrevem. É só uma constatação sobre aquilo que temos.

by Pedro Magalhães

Sondagens na Palestina (2)

Posted March 1st, 2006 at 5:21 pm4 Comments

Mais uma:

Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, 16-20 Fevereiro, M=1003, Face-a-face.

I am going to read to you a series of policies and duties, which Hamas could follow. I would like you to tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of them.

Recognize the State of Israel.
Strongly agree:16.1%
Somewhat agree: 34.7%
Somewhat disagree: 17.0%
Strongly disagree: 31.5%
Don’t know: 0.7%

Continue the truce with the Israelis.
Strongly agree: 48.5%
Somewhat agree: 32.0%
Somewhat disagree: 11.3%
Strongly disagree: 8.1%
Don’t know: 0.1%

Resume the peace process with Israel.
Strongly agree: 32.2%
Somewhat agree: 37.5%
Somewhat disagree: 20.0%
Strongly disagree: 9.5%
Don’t know:0.8%

E uma citação do Political Aritmetik sobre as sondagens na Palestina, que vai de encontro e para além daquilo que eu próprio escrevi aqui.

I'm a strong "small-d" democrat. I don't know what Hamas will end up doing in office. And I don't expect miracles. But I do think that over the long haul (say 20-40 years) democratic institutions exert real pressure on political movements that enter the electoral arena. The IRA is a good example. It has taken a long time, but there has been real progress there. I hope the same for the Palestinians, though I think I am realistic about the long time frame required. What I so admire about the PCPSR, DSP and other Palestinian pollsters is that they are providing the independent data and analysis of what the Palestinian public thinks that is a necessary part of democratic institution building. Given the hard conditions in which they work, I'm very impressed with their excellence. I hope that they continue to provide the best data possible so that whoever runs the Palestinian Authority will have to consider what their public thinks.

by Pedro Magalhães

Sondagem na Palestina

Posted February 23rd, 2006 at 9:43 pm4 Comments

É em alturas como estas que me lembro de uma razão fundamental para que as sondagens devam existir: para que os cidadãos sejam ouvidos, e para que as suas vozes não sejam substituídas pelos palpites de quem acha que "sabe" o que "nós" queremos ou o que "eles" querem. Alguns exemplos:

Margem Ocidental e Faixa de Gaza, Jerusalem Media & Communication Center - Public Opinion Poll Unit, 8-12 Fevereiro, N=1200, Aleatória, Presencial

Q12. The PA is committed to the option of political negotiations with Israel. Do you believe that the new government headed by Hamas has to continue with the political negotiations, stop the political negotiations and should adopt other options?
To continue with the political negotiations: 66.3%
Stop the political negotiations 29.6%
No answer: 4.1%

Q17. Some believe that a two-state formula is the favored solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while others believe that historic Palestine cannot be divided and thus the favored solution is a bi-national state on all of Palestine where Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal representation and rights. Which of these solutions do you prefer?
Two-state solution: an Israeli and a Palestinian: 57.9%
Bi-national state on all of historic Palestine: 22.3%
One Palestinian state:10.5%
Islamic state: 2.7%
No solution: 3.9%
Don't know 1.6%
No answer 1.1%

Q19. Do you support the resumption of the military operations against Israeli targets as a suitable response within the current political conditions, or do you oppose them and find them harmful to Palestinians national interests?
I oppose them and find them harmful to Palestinian national interests: 51.5%
Suitable response within the current political conditions: 43.8%
Others: 0.3%
Don’t know: 2.8%
no answer 1.6%

Q20. Hamas has executed violent operations against Israeli targets inside Israel and in the West Bank and Gaza strip against civilians and against military troops, now and after Hamas victory in the PLC elections, do you believe that Hamas should continue with such operations or that it should halt them?
Hamas has to stop its operations: 51.7%
Hamas has to continue with its operations: 39.1%
No answer 9.2%

Q24. If you voted for Hamas , why so?*
Religious Factors: 18.8%
Hope to end the Corruption: 43.0%
Hope to live in better living conditions: 10.7%
For their political agenda: 11.8%
To stop Fateh's control over the government:7.5%
Others 2.1%
No answer: 6.1%

*This question was asked who said that they voted for Hamas

by Pedro Magalhães

Piccolo divertimento

Posted February 17th, 2006 at 7:00 pm4 Comments

Em Itália, as eleições estão marcadas para o dia 9 de Abril de 2006. O crescimento económico médio nos últimos quatro anos não se recomenda: 0,7%. Em 2005, apenas 0,2%. A campanha deverá correr, em princípio, sob nova legislação obrigando a uma cobertura mediática equilibrada dos vários partidos. Mas as eleições vão decorrer sob um novo (mais um) sistema eleitoral, desta vez de representação proporcional, que deverá beneficiar a direita.

A Unione de Prodi procura desalojar a Casa de Berlusconi. Mas a Unione é tudo menos o que o nome indica: é um saco de gatos, reunindo desde democratas-cristãos (seja lá o que isso queira dizer hoje em Itália) até Trotsquistas (idem), cujo único objectivo em comum é correr com Berlusconi e repartir os despojos. E a Itália é a Itália, e Berlusconi é Berlusconi. Berlusconi esse que se descreveu há dias como "o Jesus Cristo da política", já prometeu que vai baixar os impostos, aumentar as pensões, e abstinência sexual até ao dia das eleições (esta última promessa já foi retirada, as outras ainda não).

Mas não se equivoquem: there is some method to his madness, como se diz no Economist.

Começo agora de mansinho, e deixo as análises complicadas lá mais para a frente. Notem, contudo:
- entre 1/5 e 1/4 de indecisos;
- margens para a Unione entre 0 e 8 por cento;
- e que essa margem de 0 por cento é dada por uma sondagem encomendada pela...Forza Italia. Ao menos aqui sabemos com o que contamos...

by Pedro Magalhães

E mais uma…

Posted February 16th, 2006 at 5:12 pm4 Comments

Sem grande novidades de fundo em relação ao post anterior, mas com algumas respostas interessantes.

UK, Mori, 9-10 Fevereiro, N=601, Telefónica.

Q1-15 From what you have heard or read about the cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed which have been published in a number of European newspapers, do you agree or disagree that …(exemplos)

Q11 "British papers were right not to publish the cartoons"
Agree: 72%
Disagree: 16%
DK: 11%

Q12 "Muslims were right to be offended by the cartoons"
Agree: 62%
Disagree: 22%
DK: 16%

Mas...

Q6 "Demonstrators carrying placards calling for beheading and other acts of violence were justified"
Agree: 3%
Disagree: 93%
DK: 4%

Q7 "The Police should have arrested those demonstrators promoting acts of violence"
Agree: 80%
Disagree: 12%
DK: 8%

E a melhor de todas é que, afinal (tal como na Palestina)...

Q18 Have you personally seen the cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed which were published in some newspapers and shown on some television programmes and Internet sites?
Yes:25%
No: 74%
Don't know: 1%

by Pedro Magalhães

As sondagens sobre os cartoons: novos dados e observações gerais

Posted February 16th, 2006 at 1:30 pm4 Comments

Uma nos Estados Unidos:
Gallup, 9-12 Fevereiro, N=1000, Telefónica

As you may know, several newspapers in Europe recently printed cartoons showing Mohammed, the founder of Islam, in ways that offended the religious views of many Muslims. Do you think the European newspapers that printed these cartoons acted responsibly or irresponsibly?
Responsibly: 29%
Irresponsibly:61%
No opinion: 10%

Overall, do you think this controversy is due more to?
Western nations’ lack of respect for the Islamic religion: 21%
Muslims’ intolerance of different points of view: 61%
Both: 6%
Neither: 2%
No opinion:9%

Which comes closer to your view—the U.S. news media have an obligation to show controversial items that are newsworthy even if they may offend the religious views of some people, the U.S. news media have an obligation to avoid offending the religious views of some people even if that prevents them from showing controversial items that are newsworthy?
Obligation to show controversial items: 57%
Obligation to avoid offending religious views: 33%
No opinion: 10%

Outra na Dinamarca:
Gallup, 8 a 10 de Fevereiro, N=1003, Telefónica

Would you say you understand why Muslims were offended by the cartoons?
Yes: 56%
No: 41%
Not sure: 3%

Do you think Jyllands-Posten was right or wrong to publish the cartoons?
Right: 43%
Wrong:49%
Not sure:8%

Só se conhecem percentagens agregadas e as sondagens não são rigorosamente comparáveis, e seria precipitado tirar grandes conclusões. Mas há algumas semelhanças e diferenças nas sondagens feitas em Inglaterra, Estados Unidos, França e Dinamarca:

-a existência de maiorias que defendem que a publicação não devia ter ocorrido ou foi irresponsável, sendo que na Dinamarca essa percepção não era inicialmente maioritária mas, pelos vistos, cresceu;

- a existência de maiorias que defendem o direito em abstracto a publicar informação ou comentário que podem ser ofensivos, em Inglaterra e, de forma algo mais mitigada, nos Estados Unidos (if controversial items are newsworthy). Mas não tanto em França (onde 65% defendem que o Islão não deve ser objecto de humor);

- "incompreensão"/"não aceitação" das "razões" da controvérsia ou da indignação por parte dos muçulmanos nos Estados Unidos ou em França, mas sim na Dinamarca.

O que explicará estas variações? Já havia tema para uma tese de mestrado.

Entretanto, na Palestina, o pior de dois mundos: a maioria não viu os cartoons, mas associa a responsabilidade pela sua publicação à Dinamarca como país.

Near East Consulting, 9-11 Fevereiro, N=1300, Face-a-face
Were the cartoons carried out on a private level or is it a general Danish position?
They represent a general position by Denmark: 62%
They were carried out on a private level:38%
Have you seen any of the Danish cartoons?
Yes: 31%
No: 69%

by Pedro Magalhães

Uma sondagem dos muçulmanos britânicos (pré-cartoons)

Posted February 13th, 2006 at 6:46 pm4 Comments

Comentada aqui, e apresentada em detalhe no site da Populus (consultar o Poll Archive).

Há dados reconfortantes, mas outros perturbantes. Menos de um terço dos muçulmanos britânicos recusa o direito à existência de Israel eum máximo de 16% (dependendo dos alvos e locais) acham que atentados suicidas podem ser justificados. Contudo, estas percentagens são sempre mais elevadas entre os mais jovens, que em todas as questões revelam maior radicalização. Questão "de idade" (ciclo de vida) ou uma nova geração mais fundamentalista?

by Pedro Magalhães

Guerras (2)

Posted February 13th, 2006 at 3:54 pm4 Comments

E para aqueles cujo interesse na questão tratada no post anterior vai ao ponto de quererem dispender algum tempo adicional, gostava de sugerir a consulta destes powerpoints de aulas da Pippa Norris na Kennedy School em Harvard, onde se discute a questão com algum detalhe (aproveitando assim também para mostrar o tipo de coisas que um professor que domina as tecnologias de informação pode fazer pelos seus alunos): esta e esta.

by Pedro Magalhães

Guerras

Posted February 13th, 2006 at 2:11 pm4 Comments

Agora que, em defesa da liberdade de expressão, Pacheco Pereira nos relembra que estamos em guerra (da mesma forma que, há uns meses, a mesma retórica lhe tinha servido em defesa limitações dos direitos cívicos impostas pelo Patriot Act e pelo Prevention of Terrorism Act), e agora que Paulo Gorjão nos convida a irmos à fonte (Huntington e o choque das civilizações), há uma afirmação de Huntington nesse famoso artigo que merece ser examinada:

At a more basic level, however, Western concepts differ fundamentally from those prevalent in other civilizations. Western ideas of individualism, liberalism, constitutionalism, human rights, equality, liberty, the rule of law, democracy, free markets, the separation of church and state, often have little resonance in Islamic, Confucian, Japanese, Hindu, Buddhist or Orthodox cultures. Western efforts to propagate each ideas produce instead a reaction against "human rights imperialism" and a reaffirmation of indigenous values, as can be seen in the support for religious fundamentalism by the younger generation in non-Western cultures.

Foi o que fizerem Ronald Inglehart e Pippa Norris, aqui. Os dados utilizados são do World Values Survey entre 1995 e 2001, resultantes de inquéritos aplicados não só na maior parte dos países ocidentais mas também no Irão, Egipto, Argélia, Turquia, Indonésia, Marrocos, Jordânia, Azerbeijão, Turquia e Bangladesh, entre outros. As questões colocadas foram as seguintes:






















Os resultados obtidos foram estes:























Conclusões:

1. With the exception of Pakistan, most of the Muslim countries surveyed think highly of democracy: In Albania, Egypt, Bangladesh, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Morocco, and Turkey, 92 to 99 percent of the public endorsed democratic institutions—a higher proportion than in the United States (89 percent);

2. A solid majority of people living in Western and Muslim countries gives democracy high marks as the most efficient form of government, with 68 percent disagreeing with assertions that “democracies are indecisive” and “democracies aren’t good at maintaining order.” (...) And an equal number of respondents on both sides of the civilizational divide (61 percent) firmly reject authoritarian governance, expressing disapproval of “strong leaders” who do not “bother with parliament and elections.”

3. Muslim societies display greater support for religious authorities playing an active societal role than do Western societies. (...) Citizens in some Muslim societies agree overwhelmingly with the statement that “politicians who do not believe in God are unfit for public office” (88 percent in Egypt, 83 percent in Iran, and 71 percent in Bangladesh), but this statement also garners strong support in the Philippines (71 percent), Uganda (60 percent), and Venezuela (52 percent). Even in the United States, about two fifths of the public believes that atheists are unfit for public office.

4. When it comes to attitudes toward gender equality and sexual liberalization, the cultural gap between Islam and the West widens into a chasm. On the matter of equal rights and opportunities for women—measured by such questions as whether men make better political leaders than women or whether university education is more important for boys than for girls—Western and Muslim countries score 82 percent and 55 percent, respectively. Muslim societies are also distinctively less permissive toward homosexuality, abortion, and divorce.

5. “The peoples of the Islamic nations want and deserve the same freedoms and opportunities as people in every nation,” President Bush declared in a commencement speech at West Point last summer. He’s right. Any claim of a “clash of civilizations” based on fundamentally different political goals held by Western and Muslim societies represents an oversimplification of the evidence. Support for the goal of democracy is surprisingly widespread among Muslim publics, even among those living in authoritarian societies. (...) But economic development generates changed attitudes in virtually any society. (...) Thus, relatively industrialized Muslim societies such as Turkey share the same views on gender equality and sexual liberalization as other new democracies.
(...)
The United States cannot expect to foster democracy in the Muslim world simply by getting countries to adopt the trappings of democratic governance, such as holding elections and having a parliament. Nor is it realistic to expect that nascent democracies in the Middle East will inspire a wave of reforms reminiscent of the velvet revolutions that swept Eastern Europe in the final days of the Cold War. A real commitment to democratic reform will be measured by the willingness to commit the resources necessary to foster human development in the Muslim world. Culture has a lasting impact on how societies evolve. But culture does not have to be destiny.

by Pedro Magalhães

Os franceses e os cartoons

Posted February 13th, 2006 at 2:03 pm4 Comments

CSA, 8 de Fevereiro, N=1000, Telefónica

Vous savez que la publication des caricatures du prophète Mahomet a suscité de l'indignation chez certains musulmans. Diriez-vous que vous comprenez tout à fait, plutôt, plutôt pas ou pas du tout cette indignation ?
Comprend tout à fait: 14%
Comprend plutôt: 22%
Ne comprend plutôt pas: 18%
Ne comprend pas du tout: 35%
Ne se prononcent pas: 11%

Vous savez que certaines personnes se demandent si l'on peut rire sur tous les sujets. Diriez-vous que c'est une très bonne chose, plutôt bonne chose, plutôt mauvaise chose ou très mauvaise chose de faire de l'humour sur…? (percentagens "mauvaise chose"):

Le handicap des personnes: 84%
L'islam: 65%
L'origine ethnique, la nationalité des personnes: 64%
Le judaïsme: 63%
Le christianisme: 60%
Le comportement sexuel des personnes: 55%

Selon-vous les journaux ont-ils eu raison ou tort de publier les caricatures du prophète Mahomet ?

Ils ont eu raison au nom de la liberté d'expression: 38%
Ils ont eu tort car cela constituait une provocation inutile: 54%
Ne se prononcent pas: 8%

by Pedro Magalhães