Pedro Magalhães

Margens de Erro

Suportar o terrorismo IV

Posted August 22nd, 2005 at 11:07 am4 Comments

Do UK Polling Report:

Following the details of the IPCC investigation into the shooting of Jean Charles de Menezes which were leaked earlier this week, there is a new BPIX poll in today’s Mail on Sunday. When it first emerged that Mr de Menezes was not a terrorist public support for the “shoot to kill” policy remained pretty much unchanged. A YouGov survey for the Mirror immediately after the shooting when it was thought Mr de Menezes was a terrorist showed 71% support for the policy; a YouGov poll a few days later for the Economist when it was clear that Mr de Menezes was innocent showed an almost identical 70% support.

The revelations earlier this week that Mr de Menezes was, in fact, not wearing a bulky jacket, nor did he run from the police, or leap over a ticket barrier and he may not even have been warned have finally started to change public opinion: only 58% of people told BPIX they supported the shoot to kill policy, with 28% thinking it wrong. While this is still obviously an overall majority, it is a significant fall from earlier levels of support.

There was also a fall in support for Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Ian Blair. In the days immediately following the London bombings BPIX found that 68% of people had confidence in Sir Ian Blair; following this week’s disclosures, confidence has fallen to only 54%. In July 23% said they had little or no confidence in Blair, that figure has now risen to 40%. BPIX also asked people directly whether or not Sir Ian Blair should resign over the police’s handling of the shooting - almost a quarter said he should, with 60% saying he should stay on.

by Pedro Magalhães

Teoria dos dominós

Posted August 19th, 2005 at 5:08 pm4 Comments

De entre os catorze blogues que aqui, há oito meses, confessei fazerem parte das minhas leituras regulares - Aviz, O País Relativo, A Praia, Barnabé, Bloguítica, Causa Nossa, O Acidental, Fora do Mundo, Blasfémias, Indústrias Culturais, Cartas de Londres, Intermitente, Portugal dos Pequeninos e Homem a Dias - seis já fecharam portas (apesar de um deles se ter passado para outro lado). Dois deles nesta semana.

by Pedro Magalhães

German update (só mesmo para fanáticos…)

Posted August 18th, 2005 at 2:45 pm4 Comments

Após nova sondagem (Infratest-Dimap) de ontem.

Poll of polls:
















Poll of polls com coligações:
















Tendências CDU/CSU e SPD por instituto:
















Descida da CDU e subida Linke são ainda os principais factos da campanha, mas tendência para estabilização de ambos. SPD não conseguiu beneficiar completamente da descida CDU. CDU/FDP estão no fio da navalha para uma maioria absoluta.

by Pedro Magalhães

Suportar o terrorismo III

Posted August 17th, 2005 at 10:33 am4 Comments

Do UK Polling Report, há duas semanas:

There was a BPIX poll published in yesterday’s Mail on Sunday, covering public support for increased police powers and the “shoot-to-kill” policy. It was conducted on the 29th-30th July, so the news that the man shot at Stockwell was entirely innocent would have had plenty of time to sink in. As suggested in the YouGov poll for the Economist though, this has had little or no effect on public support for the policy - 68% of people thought the police did the right thing at the time, and a similar number continue to support the policy.
On other policies, 62% support the re-introduction of the death penalty for terrorist murders (pretty much the same as the 60% who supported it’s re-introduction in a BPIX poll straight after the July 7th bombings - opinions on moral issues like capital punishment don’t tend to change much), just under 60% supported the abolition of the Human Rights Act, most controversially, almost a third of respondents said that they thought torture could sometimes be justified in interrogating terrorist suspects.


Do Times de Londres, hoje:

SCOTLAND YARD made “a series of catastrophic errors” that led to armed officers hunting the July 21 bombers shooting dead an innocent Brazilian, it was claimed last night. (...) CCTV footage shows that Mr de Menezes was wearing a thin denim jacket that could not conceal a bomb, and he was not carrying a bag. Far from running from police, he did not realise that anyone was following him and even picked up a free newspaper before using his season ticket to pass through the barrier. He began to run only when he saw his train pull into the station. At the time of the shooting, Scotland Yard said that Mr de Menezes’s “clothing and his behaviour at the station added to their suspicions”. It was only when Mr de Menezes boarded the train that a surveillance officer guided four armed police into the same carriage. A man sitting opposite him is quoted as saying: “Within a few seconds I saw a man coming into the double doors to my left. He was pointing a small, black handgun towards a person sitting opposite me. “He pointed the gun at the right hand side of the man’s head. The gun was within 12 inches of the man’s head when the first shot was fired.”

Ninguém no seu perfeito juízo ou em boa fé poderá retirar qualquer satisfação da revelação das reais circunstâncias da morte de Jean Charles de Menezes. Mas a única esperança é que desta tragédia venha alguma lucidez. Lucidez suficiente para que se deixe de pensar que discutir a tensão entre a liberdade e a luta contra o terrorismo não passa de uma coisa de "burocratas bruxelenses" que só serve para "facilitar a vida aos terroristas".

by Pedro Magalhães

The real thing

Posted August 17th, 2005 at 10:13 am4 Comments

Eis a fonte de todas as fontes para as sondagens na Alemanha: esta, da responsabilidade de Martin Fehndrich, Wilko Zicht e Matthias Cantow. Cheguei lá através do indispensável UK Polling Report.

Com este elenco completo de resultados, a poll of polls actualizada fica assim (clicar na imagem para ver em formato maior):
















Os mesmos dados da poll of polls, agora com coligações:

















Depois da descida CDU e subida SPD das últimas semanas, os dados mais recentes indicam uma relativa estabilização. Vale a pena ler a breve e claríssima análise do Uk Polling Report, aqui.

by Pedro Magalhães

Maioria de israelitas apoia retirada

Posted August 11th, 2005 at 5:47 pm4 Comments

Maagar Mochot, 8 Agosto 2005, N=506, Telefónica.

Are you for or against the disengagement plan?
For: 57% (+5% em relação a 20 de Julho)
Against: 31% (+1%)
Ns/Nr: 12% (-6%)

by Pedro Magalhães

Alemanha, tendências por instituto e conclusões

Posted August 10th, 2005 at 2:59 pm4 Comments



A pouco mais de um mês das eleições na Alemanha, o que dizem as sondagens?

1. Distância ainda enorme entre CDU/CDU e SPD;

2. Diminuição progressiva dessa distância ao longo dos últimos meses;

3. Encurtamento da vantagem da CDU/CSU concomitante com deterioração da imagem de Angela Merkel e aumento da popularidade pessoal de Schröder, que já ultrapassa Merkel como melhor opção como Chanceler (ver aqui alguns incidentes de campanha ligados a isto);

4. Diminuição do score CDU/CSU e estabilidade (por baixo) do FDP tornam maioria absoluta da coligação CDU/CSU-FDP menos plausível.

5. Subida do PDS/WASG torna maioria SPD/Verdes altamente implausível.

6. Postura política e ideológica do PDS/WASG torna sua participação numa coligação de esquerda altamente implausível.

7. Logo, opção de coligação mais favorecida pelos alemães é uma "grande coligação" CDU/CSU-SPD. Mas isso não impede - pelo contrário - a cada vez menos desejada Merkel como Chanceler. A CDU e/ou os eleitores alemães vão ter de encontrar uma solução para este dilema.

by Pedro Magalhães

Alemanha, poll of polls, coligações

Posted August 10th, 2005 at 10:14 am4 Comments

by Pedro Magalhães

Alemanha, poll of polls

Posted August 9th, 2005 at 5:29 pm4 Comments

by Pedro Magalhães

Hiroshima e Nagasaki

Posted August 9th, 2005 at 4:53 pm4 Comments

Public Opinion Research Center/Ipsos

Japão, Julho 1-3, 2005; N=1945
Estados Unidos, Julho 7-10, 2005, N=1000

Acha que os bombardeamentos atómicos de Hiroshima e Nagasaki em 1945 foram inevitáveis ou desnecessários para conduzir a guerra a um fim rápido?

Inevitáveis
Japão: 35%
Estados Unidos: 60%

Desnecessários
Japão: 63%
Estados Unidos: 39%

Não sabe/não responde
Japão: 2%
Estados Unidos:1%


Acha que algum país poderá alguma vez ter justificação para usar uma arma nuclear primeiro contra outro país?
Sim
Japão: 14%
Estados Unidos: 28%

Não
Japão: 82%
Estados Unidos: 69%

Não sabe/não responde
Japão: 4%
Estados Unidos:3%

by Pedro Magalhães