Pedro Magalhães

Margens de Erro

Out (very) soon

Posted July 19th, 2012 at 11:02 am4 Comments

Click the image to enlarge. Click here for more info on the book and the IntUne series.

by Pedro Magalhães

Já que falamos em produtividade científica…

Posted July 18th, 2012 at 1:07 pm4 Comments

by Pedro Magalhães

Ainda sobre produtividade científica

Posted July 18th, 2012 at 12:52 pm4 Comments

by Pedro Magalhães

Da análise da produtividade científica na Sociologia

Posted July 17th, 2012 at 10:24 pm4 Comments

"As the sociology’s founding institute in Portugal, ICS-UL retained its leadership position for some time; however, as far as sociology is concerned, it has been overtaken by CIES-IUL. While both institutes occupy a leading role in terms of SCG, CIES-IUL is presently ahead of ICS-UL because it has a much larger and more productive team."

Fernando Luís Machado, Director do... CIES-IUL, num artigo publicado numa revista científica.

by Pedro Magalhães

Eurosondagem, 12 Jun, N=1022, Tel.

Posted June 15th, 2012 at 9:34 pm4 Comments

PSD: 34.3% (-0.5)
PS: 32.1% (+0.9)
CDS-PP: 11.6% (-0.9)
CDU: 9% (+0.2)
BE: 6.9% (+0.4)

Here, basically suggesting that the last known poll was not an outlier.

by Pedro Magalhães

Subtleties: polls in Spain and Portugal since elections

Posted June 8th, 2012 at 6:11 pm4 Comments

by Pedro Magalhães


Posted June 6th, 2012 at 3:40 pm4 Comments

Interesting tidbits from the last Catholic University poll (Portugal, registered voters, N=1366, face to face, 49% response rate):

- 67% evaluate the government's performance as "bad" or "very bad."And yet, 58% believe that no opposition party could do better.
Passos Coelho and Paulo Portas, the leaders of the coalition parties, have the worst evaluations of all party leaders.
- Miguel Relvas is judged the worst member of cabinet, by far. Vítor Gaspar, the Finance Minister, the best (or least bad, so to speak.).
- Cavaco Silva, the President, has the worst evaluation ever, for himself and for any President before him.
- 72% support staying in the Eurozone. 20% support return to Escudo.
- 59% expect need for further EU/IMF support.
- 58% think it unlikely Portugal descends into a Greek scenario.

by Pedro Magalhães

Portuguese polls

Posted June 5th, 2012 at 2:46 am4 Comments

A new poll out today. Below, an update of our usual graph (the lines are local regression smoothers, 75% bandwidth) already including it. One result of that poll that may surprise some people is that the Left (the Communists + the Left Bloc) adds up to 18% in voting intentions. But as you see below, it's not even the first time that happened.

by Pedro Magalhães

PS and PSD in the Portuguese polls

Posted May 14th, 2012 at 6:16 pm4 Comments

As usual, very few polls, nothing since April 20th (!), everything very dependent on the leverage of particular polls from particular pollsters. And yet, note the recent unusual pattern when we take into account normal polling patterns for PSD and PS: one party's loss has ceased to be the other party's gain.

I'll leave the deep interpretation to you, but it doesn't seem too difficult.

by Pedro Magalhães

French polls, 2nd round (May 4th update)

Posted May 4th, 2012 at 2:30 pm4 Comments

Including polls made public yesterday and today:

And zooming in on the last month:

So I would not open the bottle of champagne right now.

by Pedro Magalhães