"As the sociology’s founding institute in Portugal, ICS-UL retained its leadership position for some time; however, as far as sociology is concerned, it has been overtaken by CIES-IUL. While both institutes occupy a leading role in terms of SCG, CIES-IUL is presently ahead of ICS-UL because it has a much larger and more productive team."
Interesting tidbits from the last Catholic University poll (Portugal, registered voters, N=1366, face to face, 49% response rate):
- 67% evaluate the government's performance as "bad" or "very bad."And yet, 58% believe that no opposition party could do better. - Passos Coelho and Paulo Portas, the leaders of the coalition parties, have the worst evaluations of all party leaders. - Miguel Relvas is judged the worst member of cabinet, by far. Vítor Gaspar, the Finance Minister, the best (or least bad, so to speak.). - Cavaco Silva, the President, has the worst evaluation ever, for himself and for any President before him. - 72% support staying in the Eurozone. 20% support return to Escudo. - 59% expect need for further EU/IMF support. - 58% think it unlikely Portugal descends into a Greek scenario.
A new poll out today. Below, an update of our usual graph (the lines are local regression smoothers, 75% bandwidth) already including it. One result of that poll that may surprise some people is that the Left (the Communists + the Left Bloc) adds up to 18% in voting intentions. But as you see below, it's not even the first time that happened.
As usual, very few polls, nothing since April 20th (!), everything very dependent on the leverage of particular polls from particular pollsters. And yet, note the recent unusual pattern when we take into account normal polling patterns for PSD and PS: one party's loss has ceased to be the other party's gain.
I'll leave the deep interpretation to you, but it doesn't seem too difficult.by Pedro Magalhães