Pedro Magalhães

Margens de Erro

Bleeding stopped?

Posted April 3rd, 2012 at 7:59 pm4 Comments

Added two new polls to the graph, Eurosondagem and Marktest. PSD seems pretty stable in the last three polls. But it's just three polls...


by Pedro Magalhães

Eurosondagem, 8-13 Março, N=1021, Tel.

Posted March 16th, 2012 at 4:18 pm4 Comments

PSD: 36%
PS: 29.6%
CDS-PP: 12%
CDU: 8.5%
BE: 6.9%

Source.

by Pedro Magalhães

Polls in Portugal since the June 2011 elections

Posted March 13th, 2012 at 3:49 pm4 Comments

With the latest Aximage poll, this is where we stand in terms of voting intentions since the June 2011 elections. A linear trend instead of fancier stuff just seemed simple and informative enough.




















Bad news for the President too. At Aximage, 60% disapproval. In the latest Marktest, 61% disapproval. Yikes! In the latest Eurosondagem, much better, but still declining pretty steeply. Sure, everybody in power suffers with a bad economy, but it's clear that there's more to this.

by Pedro Magalhães

Elections in Europe since 2004

Posted March 12th, 2012 at 10:02 pm4 Comments

This is from a paper I'm still writing with Josep Colomer, but the figures seemed so interesting I couldn't resist sharing them even before the paper's finished. Here's the relative change for the party of the incumbent Prime Minister in comparison with the previous election, for all legislative elections from 2004 to 2011 in all EU27 + Iceland and Croatia.



And this is the same splitting the PM's parties in Left (<5) vs. Right (>5), on the basis of 0-10 expert scores that can be obtained in the Parlgov website.




by Pedro Magalhães

Finally, a clear and objective explanation of the Portuguese economic crisis

Posted March 2nd, 2012 at 2:56 pm4 Comments

"Labour and capital were diverted into activities, such as law, construction, health and government, that are sheltered from foreign competition. The number of lawyers increased by 48% between 2000 and 2010. The public sector grew fast. 'All these people went to study film-making and sociology and then got jobs with the government,' says Pedro Santa Clara of Lisbon’s Nova University. Productivity stagnated."

You can find this and more in an obscure publication called The Economist. Let's hope this sociology and film-making people getting government jobs problem is addressed in a revised version of the Troika memorandum.

by Pedro Magalhães

Killing time on election nights.

Posted March 1st, 2012 at 4:49 pm4 Comments

PSD and PS in the polls

Posted February 13th, 2012 at 3:43 pm4 Comments

Three new polls since the last time we looked at this: from Marktest, Aximage, and Eurosondagem.




















The advantage of the PSD over the PS is now estimated at 7.5 points by Aximage (down from 8.2 in January), at 12.4 points by Marktest (down from 25.7 in November) and at 5 points by Eurosondagem (down from 6.1 in January).

by Pedro Magalhães

Yet another piece of the Greek puzzle

Posted February 10th, 2012 at 5:53 pm4 Comments

Latest polls in Greece:

Epikaira (comparison with last election result):

New Democracy: 30.5% (-3)
PASOK: 12% (-32.1)
Laos: 6% (+0.4)
Democratic Left: 13% (new party)
KKE: 12.5% (+5)
Coalition of the radical left: 12.5% (+7.9)

Skai/Ekathimerini (comparison with last election result):

New Democracy: 31% (-2.5)
PASOK: 8% (-35.9)
Laos: 5% (-0.6)
Democratic Left: 18% (new party)
KKE: 12.5% (+5)
Coalition of the radical left: 12%  (+7.4)
Chrysi Avgi: 3% (+2.5)

12% for PASOK would be the worst result for the Socialists ever, even worse than the 13.6% of the 1974 elections, the first after the end of the military junta. In these polls, the parties to the left of PASOK represent about 40% of the vote. And Chrysi Avgi is, well, this.

by Pedro Magalhães

PSD and PS in the Portuguese polls

Posted January 23rd, 2012 at 10:41 pm4 Comments

So few polls have been conducted in the more than 6 months since the general election in Portugal that one has to feel discomfort in analyzing them. And yet, two things seem relatively clear: in spite of dramatic austerity policies, PSD retains lead; and in spite of retaining lead, such lead is clearly diminishing. I guess you can take this and spin it as you prefer.




















Data taken from here.

by Pedro Magalhães

Experiência

Posted January 19th, 2012 at 5:26 pm4 Comments

Daqui a minutos deve estar a começar a minha apresentação na conferência sobre os resultados do Barómetro da Qualidade da Democracia, no ICS. Especulo, porque não estou lá, mas sim em Washington. Mas vou apresentar na mesma, assim:




Quem não puder lá estar e tiver interesse, aproveite. O som da minha voz é-me quase intolerável e foi das coisas que mais me custou fazer na vida. Mas por outro lado, se correr bem, é bem possível que nunca mais compareça fisicamente a uma conferência.

by Pedro Magalhães