Pedro Magalhães

Margens de Erro

Referendum in Greece

Posted November 1st, 2011 at 2:28 pm4 Comments

Ah, politics: always so inconvenient. Faced with intraparty dissent and horrible pollsPapandreou announced he is going to call a referendum on the debt deal. In the meantime, another PASOK MP resigned, the party's majority in parliament is now down to two MP's, and six members of PASOK's national council called for Papandreou's resignation. And a recent poll shows 60% of Greeks to be against the deal.

According to the database at the Center for Research on Direct Demcracy, Greece has not held a referendum in 37 years. The last time was in 1974, after the collapse of the military Junta, to decide whether Greece would remain a Republic. Indeed it did, 69% to 31%. Turnout was 76%.

Apparently, judging from this Venice Commission document, this is the procedure:

1. Government proposes referendum.
2. A majority of MP's must support a resolution.
3. The President calls the referendum.

And Friday there's a confidence vote in parliament. So we're not quite there yet...




by Pedro Magalhães

Next!

Posted November 1st, 2011 at 4:38 am4 Comments



by Pedro Magalhães

Spanish polls update

Posted October 31st, 2011 at 2:44 pm4 Comments

Several new polls in the last few days, as reported in Electometro. The overall picture since January 2011:




















And a closer look at the smaller parties:



















Looking at the more recent polls, especially by those pollsters who publish results more often, vote intentions for PP and PSOE seem very, very stable. The table below compares the results of the last to the next to last polls published by NC Report, Sigma Dos, and Metroscopia. Almost a little bit too stable, if we're talking about (as we think we are) independent samples.


by Pedro Magalhães

Science: What It’s Up To?

Posted October 29th, 2011 at 5:16 pm4 Comments

Marktest, 18-22 Oct, n=809, Tel.

Posted October 29th, 2011 at 1:04 pm4 Comments

Here. The government's PSD drops 5 points in voting intentions, but remains comfortably ahead of PS. The Prime Minister's approval falls 9 points. Having said that, the poll estimates 19% for blank votes and for other parties besides PSD, PS, CDS, CDU and BE, which is something so detached from any plausible scenario that one has to wonder what the whole results mean.

by Pedro Magalhães

Eurosondagem, 20-25 Oct, n=1032, Tel.

Posted October 28th, 2011 at 8:29 pm4 Comments

Unsurprisingly, following the 2012 budget plans, not very good news for the Portuguese government in the most recent poll. Government approval drops 7 points in relation to the previous poll by the same company, and there's now more people disapproving than approving. Drop in voting intentions for the PSD is less impressive: a 2.4 drop, bringing it to 36.9%, and a 3.4 drop in the lead over PS. Tomorrow, I believe, we'll know results on questions about the budget and its measures. What do you expect?

P.S- Here it goes: 81% oppose budget proposal, 80% against bonus cuts, 58% distrust the government, 63% support the strike and don't think the budget targets will be achieved. Disappointing that, as usual, most Portuguese pollsters offer no breakdown of results by party ID, or vote intention, or, in this case, whether respondents are civil service workers or pensioners.

by Pedro Magalhães

Polls in Portugal

Posted October 27th, 2011 at 5:32 pm4 Comments

Surprisingly few, as Pedro Lains suggests. The last I know of is from October 6th. Until then, as suggested here and can be seen here, good news for the government. But of course, what happened since may matter a lot. I like it when people complain there's not enough polling: I think they're absolutely right, but probably most of you disagree. By the way, we should have a poll on that too.

by Pedro Magalhães

More Spanish polls

Posted October 23rd, 2011 at 11:25 pm4 Comments

Two recent polls in Spain, one by Metroscopia and another by Sigma Dos. The Metroscopia poll has PP's lead over PSOE standing firm at around 15 points, while the Sigma Dos poll places that lead at 17, also like in their previous poll.

by Pedro Magalhães

A look at the Spanish polls

Posted October 17th, 2011 at 7:28 pm4 Comments

There's a wonderful resource about the Spanish general elections that will take place about a month from now (November 20th, to be more precise): Electometro.com, a collection of web-based news on all voting intention media polls. Before looking at the data, a few aspects of these polls and how they are reported merit mention:

1. Fifteen different companies (including CIS, the state's Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas) have published polls results since January 2011, according to Electometro. Most of them, however, seem to do it on an irregular basis.

2. Maybe it's because Electometro gets its news from online sources (rather than print media), but it's surprising to see how lax the standards seem to be in terms of reporting basic methodological aspects of polls. Many results are presented without mention of sample size, mode, or even the estimated voting intention for parties other than the incumbent Socialists (PSOE) or Partido Popular (PP).

3. In most cases, percentages are presented with decimal points. Oh well...

4. Average sample size is surprisingly high with 2,175, but that's mainly due to a single poll published in April with a staggering sample size of 45,635! I don't enough about the vagaries of Spanish politics, media, and polling to understand what may have led a media company to sponsor something like this. Without this poll, average sample size drops to 1,323.

Spanish polls don't have a particularly stellar reputation in what concerns accuracy - if by accuracy we mean presenting voting intentions that end up being close to the final outcome. In 1996, polls suggested a PP lead over PSOE of about 10 points, while the actual margin of victory ended up being a single percentage point. In 2000, polls suggested a PP lead of 5 points over PSOE, but it ended up being 10 on election day. Things may be getting better, however. If we discount 2004, where the March 11 terrorist attack obviously disturbed the relation between intentions measured before the attack and the election outcome, most media polls in 2008 were close to the 44% score and 4 point lead that PSOE enjoyed over PP.

So what do things look like today? The following graph shows the results of the 64 polls published since January 2011 (as reported in Electometro), with voting intention for the five largest parties and a kernel smoothing line (25% points to fit):


The two vertical lines represent the dates when PM Zapatero announced he would not be PSOE's candidate (April 2nd) and when Minister of Interior Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba became the de facto Socialist candidate (June 13th). Mere visual inspection seems to suggest a positive (for PSOE) reaction to Zapatero's withdrawal from the race but no clear effects of Rubalcaba's selection. Izquierda Unida seems posed for a much better result than in 2008 (where it got 3.8%) and the same is true for Unión Progreso y Democracia.


Another way of looking at this is to focus on PP's lead over PSOE since the beginning of 2011, which seems to be on the rise since May and is, as of today, higher than 15 percentage points in almost all of the recent polls:




















I also regressed each party's score on dummy variables for each polling company (taking CIS as the reference category) and for each month, excluding the constant from the equation and thus taking the estimates for each monthly dummy as monthly results cleaned of "house effects". In what concerns PP, the recent October results are close to the best the party has had since the beginning of 2011. For PSOE, the highest point was in April, after Zapatero's withdrawal, which seems to have given PSOE a 4-point bump. But voting intentions for the Socialists have declined ever since and there's indeed no evidence that Rubalcaba changed anything there. The results also show interesting house effects: in comparison in CIS, pollsters like Sigma Dos, NC Report, and DYM seem to generate results that are particularly flattering for PP, while the opposite occurs with Metroscopia and Obradoiro de Sociologia. As for PSOE, the most unflattering results have come from NC Report, GAD, TNS, and Metroscopia again.

Out today: a report by GAD interestingly entitled "¿Nos podemos fiar de las encuestas electorales?", recalling past problems with Spanish polls and a tendency to underestimate incumbent vote share.

by Pedro Magalhães

Rescaldo

Posted October 9th, 2011 at 9:49 pm4 Comments

Resultados finais:
PSD: 48,6%
CDS-PP: 17,6%
PS: 11,5%
PTP: 6,9%
CDU: 3,8%
PND: 3,3%
PAN: 2,1%
MPT: 1,9%
BE: 1,7%

Espero que já não me fique mal dizer isto, mas a Católica arrasa a concorrência de tal maneira que nem vale a pena fazer quadros comparativos.

by Pedro Magalhães