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Articles

Forthcoming

• [Research Note] “Women Running for Office Are Less Risk Averse Than Men. Evidence From Portugal,” with Miguel M. Pereira, Journal of Politics (journal link; replication materials)
• [Research Note] “Public support for democracy in the United States has declined generationally,” with Christopher Claassen, Public Opinion Quarterly (ungated journal link; replication materials)
• [Research Note] “Populist radical right rhetoric increases discrimination towards minorities: Welfare ethnocentrism and anti-Roma attitudes,” with Rui Costa-Lopes, European Journal of Political Research (journal link; replication materials)
• “Politicians support (and voters reward) intra-party reforms to promote transparency,” with Miguel M. Pereira, Susana Coroado, and Luís de Sousa, Party Politics (ungated journal link; supplemental material)
• “Populist governments, judicial independence, and public trust in the courts,” with Nuno Garoupa, Journal of European Public Policy (journal link; replication materials)
• [Research Note] “Economic forecasts and executive approval,” with Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Bruno Fernandes, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties (journal link; replication materials)

2024

• “When corruption investigations come to nothing: A natural experiment on trust in courts,” Governance 37(1): 99-117 (ungated journal link; replication materials)
• “A scoping review on perception-based definitions and measurements of corruption,” with Gustavo Gouvêa Maciel, Luís de Sousa, Isabel R. Pinto & Felippe Clemente, Public Integrity 26 (1): 114-131 (journal link; ungated accepted manuscript)

2023

• “Rules or legacies? Industry and political revolving doors in regulators’ careers in Portugal,” with Susana Coroado, Governance 36(3): 741-758. (journal link; replication materials)
• “Beyond the myth of legality? Framing effects and public reactions to High Court decisions in Europe,” with Jon K. Skiple, Miguel M. Pereira, Sveinung Arnesen, & Henrik L. Bentsen, Comparative Political Studies 56(10): 1537–1566 (ungated journal link; replication materials)

2022

• “Effective government and evaluations of democracy,” with Christopher Claassen, Comparative Political Studies 55 (5): 869-894 (ungated accepted manuscript; supplementary materials; replication materials).
• “Ideological extremism, perceived party system polarization, and support for democracy,” with Mariano Torcal, European Political Science Review 14 (2): 188-205 (ungated journal link; replication materials)

2021

• “Public trust in the European legal systems: Independence, accountability, and awareness,” with Nuno Garoupa, West European Politics 44 (3): 690-713 (journal link; ungated accepted manuscript; replication materials)

2020

• “Judicial performance and trust in legal systems: Findings from a decade of surveys in over 20 European countries,” with Nuno Garoupa, Social Science Quarterly 101 (5): 1743-1760 (journal link; replication materials)
• “What are the best quorum rules? A laboratory investigation,” with Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Christoph A. Vanberg, Public Choice 185 (1-2): 215-231 (journal link; working paper early version).
• “New forms of mobilization, new people mobilized? Evidence from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems,” with John H. Aldrich & Rachel K. Gibson, Party Politics 26 (5): 605-618 (journal link; UManchester repository version).
• “Are the Rich and the Poor Equally Committed to Liberal Democracy? Socioeconomic Status, Inequality, and the Political Status Quo,” with Besir Ceka, Comparative Politics 52 (3): 383-412 (journal link; pre-print version).
• “The 2019 Portuguese general elections,” with Jorge M. Fernandes, West European Politics 43 (4): 1038-1050 (journal link).

2019

• “Transparency, Policy Outcomes, and Incumbent Support,” with Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Francisco J. Veiga, Kyklos 72 (3): 357-380 (journal link).
• “Procedural Fairness, the Economy, and Support for Political Authorities,” with Luís Aguiar-Conraria, Political Psychology 40 (1): 165-181 (journal link, working paper early version).

2018

• “Portugal’s Leftist Government: From Sick Man to Poster Boy?,” with Jorge M. Fernandes and José Santana-Pereira, South European Society and Politics, 23 (4): 503-524 (journal link).
• “This time it’s different? Effects of the Eurovision Debate on young citizens and its consequence for EU democracy–evidence from a quasi-experiment in 24 countries,” with Jürgen Maier et al., Journal of European Public Policy 25 (4): 606-629 (journal link).

2017

• “Judicial Behavior under Austerity: An Empirical Analysis of Behavioral Changes in the Portuguese Constitutional Court, 2002-2016,” with Susana Coroado and Nuno Garoupa, Journal of Law and Courts, 5(2): 289-311 (journal link; pre-print version).
• “A Tale of Two Elections: Information, Motivated Reasoning and the Economy in the 2011 and 2015 Portuguese Elections,” Análise Social, 52(225): 736-758 (open access journal link).

2016

• “From ideology to performance: austerity and government defection in the 2014 European Parliament elections,” Electoral Studies, 44: 492–503.
• “Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts,” with Luís Aguiar-Conraria and Christoph A. Vanberg, Experimental Economics, 19 (4): 886–909.
• “Economic evaluations, procedural fairness, and satisfaction with democracy,” Political Research Quarterly, 69(3):522-534.
• “Government survival in semi-presidential regimes,” with Jorge M. Fernandes, European Journal of Political Research, 55(1): 61-80.
• “Portuguese Democratisation 40 Years on: Its Meaning and Enduring Legacies,” with Marina Costa Lobo and António Costa Pinto, South European Society and Politics, 21(2):163-180.

2014

• “Sovereign debt and governance failures: Portuguese democracy and the financial crisis,” with Luís de Sousa and Luciano Amaral, American Behavioral Scientist, 58 (12): 1517-1541.
• “Introduction: Financial crisis, austerity, and electoral politics,” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 24 (2): 125-133.
• “The elections of the Great Recession in Portugal: performance voting under blurred responsibility for the economy,” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 24 (2): 180-202.
• “Government Effectiveness and Support for Democracy,”  European Journal of Political Research, 53 (1): 77-97

2013

• “The Nationalization of Electoral Cycles in the United States: A Wavelet Analysis,” with Luís Aguiar-Conraria and Maria Joana Soares, Public Choice, 156 (3-4): 387-408.
• “Implementing the World Mental Health Survey Initiative in Portugal — rationale, design and fieldwork procedures,” with Miguel Xavier, Helena Baptista, Jorge M Mendes, and José M Caldas de Almeida, International Journal of Mental Health Systems, 7: 19.

2012

• “Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time-Series,” with Luís Aguiar-Conraria and Maria Joana Soares, American Journal of Political Science 56 (2): 500-518
• “Forecasting Spanish Elections“, with Luís Aguiar-Conraria and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, International Journal of Forecasting 28 (4): 769-776.
• “Foreign Direct Investment and Home Country Political Risk: The Case of Brazil“, with Sandra Aguiar, Luís Aguiar-Conraria, and Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen. Latin American Research Review 47 (2): 144-165.
• “After the Bailout: Responsibility, Policy, and Valence in the Portuguese Legislative Election of June 2011,” South European Society and Politics 17 (2): 309-327.
• “Is the Good Polity Attainable? Measuring the Quality of Democracy,” with António Costa Pinto and Luís de Sousa, European Political Science 11 (4): 447-455.

2011

• “Room for Manoeuvre: Euroscepticism in the Portuguese Parties and Electorate“, with Marina Costa Lobo, South European Society and Politics 16 (1): 81-104. Also as a chapter in this book.
• “As sondagens e os resultados eleitorais em Portugal” [Voting Intention Polls and Electoral Results in Portugal], with Luís Aguiar-Conraria and Manuel Maria Pereira, Boletim da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Spring 2011: 37-52.

2010

• “How Quorum Rules Distort Referendum Outcomes: Evidence from a Pivotal Voter Model,” with Luís Aguiar-Conraria, European Journal of Political Economy 26 (4): 541-557.
• “Referendum Design, Quorum Rules, and Turnout,” with Luís Aguiar-Conraria, Public Choice 144 (1-2): 63-81.

2009

• “The Clarity of Policy Alternatives, Left-Right and the European Parliament Vote in 2004,” with André Freire and Marina Costa Lobo, Journal of European Integration 31 (5): 665-683. Also as a chapter in this book.
• “Growth, Centrism, and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections“, with Luís Aguiar-Conraria, Electoral Studies 28 (2): 314-321.

2008

• “Redes sociais e participação eleitoral em Portugal” [Social Networks and Electoral Turnout in Portugal], Análise Social 43 (3): 473-504.
• “Uma previsão dos resultados eleitorais das eleições legislativas de 2009″ [A forecast of the 2009 legislative election results in Portugal”, with Luís Aguiar-Conraria, IPRIS-Verbis 8: 1-9 (expanded working paper version here).

2007

• “What Are (Semi)Presidential Elections About? A Case Study of the Portuguese 2006 Elections“, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 17 (3): 263-291.
• “As sondagens pré-eleitorais nas autárquicas de 2005” [The pre-election polls in the 2005 local elections], with Diogo Moreira, Comunicação & Cultura 3: 157-173.

2005

• “Disaffected Democrats: Political Culture and Political Action in Portugal,” West European Politics 28 (5): 973-991.
• “Pre-Election Polls in Portugal: Accuracy, Bias and Sources of Error, 1991-2004,” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 17 (4): 399-421.
• “As eleições presidenciais em sistemas semipresidenciais: participação eleitoral e punição dos governos” [Presidential Elections in Semi-Presidential Systems: Electoral Turnout and Government Punishment], with Braulio Gómez Fortes, Análise Social 40 (177): 891-922.

2003

• “A confiança nos parlamentos nacionais: regras institucionais, representação e responsabilização política” [Trust in National Parliaments: Institutions, Representation and Accountability], Análise Social 38 (167): 891-922.
• “A abstenção portuguesa em perspectiva comparada” [Portuguese Abstention in Comparative Perspective], with André Freire, Eleições 7: 7-36.

2002

• “The Return of the Portuguese Right: The 2001 Local Government Elections and the 2002 Legislative Elections,” with Marina Costa Lobo, South European Society and Politics 7 (1): 72-89.

2001

• “From ‘Third Wave’ to ‘Third Way’: The Socialist Party and European Integration,” with Marina Costa Lobo, Journal of Southern Europe and the Balkans 3 (1): 25-35 (also published in Portuguese translation in Politica Internacional 3).
• “Desigualdade, desinteresse e desconfiança: a abstenção nas eleições legislativas de 1999” [Inequality, Disinterest and Distrust: Abstention in the 1999 Legislative Elections], Análise Social 35 (157): 1079-1093.

2000

• “A justiça constitucional: uma instituição contra as maiorias?” [Constitutional Justice: A Countermajoritarian Institution?], with António de Araújo, Análise Social 35 (154-155): 207-246.
• “O activismo judicial na Europa do Sul” [Judicial Activism in Southern Europe], with Carlo Guarnieri, Sub Judice 14: 7-14.

1999

• “The Politics of Judicial Reform in Eastern Europe,” Comparative Politics 32 (1): 43-62.
• “Corporativismo, judicialização da política e a ‘crise da justiça’ em Portugal” [Corporatism, the judicialization of politics and the ‘crisis of the judicial system’ in Portugal,” Revista do Ministério Público 79.

1998

• “A justiça constitucional entre o direito e a política: o comportamento judicial no Tribunal Constitucional português” [Constitutional Justice Between Law and Politics: Judicial Behavior in the Portuguese Constitutional Court], with António de Araújo, Análise Social 33 (145): 7-53.

1995

• “Democratização e independência judicial em Portugal” [Democratization and Judicial Independence in Portugal],Análise Social 30 (130): 51-90.

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