Pedro Magalhães

Margens de Erro

Eurosondagem, 11-17 Abril, N=1036, Tel.

Posted April 21st, 2012 at 1:08 pm4 Comments

PSD: 35.3% (-0.7%)
PS: 30.5% (0.9%)
CDS-PP: 10.7% (-1.3%)
CDU: 9.1% (+0.6%)
BE: 6.4% (-0.5%)

Aqui. Para a jornalista Cristina Figueiredo, do Expresso, mudanças abaixo de um ponto percentual numa sondagem significam "Passos e Governo caem, Seguro e PS sobem." Realmente, gastar massa numa sondagem para depois vir dizer que está tudo exactamente na mesma é chato.

by Pedro Magalhães

Portugal, abreviado

Posted April 21st, 2012 at 5:07 am4 Comments

"Imagine que tem um problema na canalização da sua casa. Chama um técnico que lhe diz que terá de pagar 100€ pelo arranjo. Se quiser factura, serão 123€. Pedia ou não factura?

Pedia: 31%
Não pedia: 64%
Ns/Nr: 5%"

Aqui.

by Pedro Magalhães

French forecasting models

Posted April 19th, 2012 at 5:08 pm4 Comments

The April issue of French Politics (ungated) is dedicated to several fun articles forecasting the 2012 French elections. Nadeau, Lewis-Beck, and Bélanger, using simultaneous equations to deal, in the one hand, with the relationship between incumbent popularity and vote for the leftist candidates in the first round and, on the other hand, the relationship between unemployment, time in office, cohabitation, and incumbent popularity, predict that the Left will get a (narrow) majority of the votes in the first round. Nadeau and Lewis-Beck (again) and Didier then take a look at second-round vote as a function of presidential approval measured 4 months before the election and the image of the candidates, and suggest that Sarkozy is in rather bad shape for the second round, albeit not so bad as polls were suggesting a few months ago. Foucault focuses on legislative elections, using local data on unemployment, national GDP data, PM's popularity, local data again on previous electoral performance of the incumbent, and a couple of other specificities, and concludes that the Left will have a narrow majority of the votes (in the last issue of PS, Foucault and Nadeau also use local data, which is then aggregated and weighted to arrive at a prediction of a - narrow - Sarkozy defeat).  Evans and Ivaldi predict Marine Le Pen with around 17%. But Jerôme and Jerôme-Speziari, using regional data, actually give a very close advantage to Sarkozy. As one of the papers notes, "a victory in 2012 would certainly qualify Sarkozy as one of the most successful campaigners in modern times." I guess at least that is safe to say.


by Pedro Magalhães

Political consequences of the economic crisis: voting and protesting in Europe since 2008

Posted April 3rd, 2012 at 8:39 pm4 Comments

This is the title of a conference jointly organized by the Department of Government and the BMW Center for German and European studies of Georgetown University. April 17th (from 9.30am to 3.00pm) and 18th (10.00am to 5.30pm) at the Edward B. Bunn Intercultural Center, 7th Floor Conference Room.

Participants, by order of presentation:

Indridi Indridason (U California Riverside)
Michael Marsh (Trinity, Dublin)
Pedro Magalhães (U Lisbon and Georgetown U)
Mariano Torcal (Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona)
Eftichia Teperoglou (MZES, Mannheim and CIES-ISCTE, Lisbon)
Emmanouil Tsatsanis (U Athens and CIES-ISCTE, Lisbon)
Paolo Bellucci (U Siena)
António Costa Pinto (U Lisbon)
David S. Muir (Director of Political Strategy for British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, 2008-2011)
Josep Colomer (Georgetown U)
Nuno Mota Pinto (World Bank)
Pedro Gete (Georgetown U)
John Karamichas (Queen’s U, Belfast)
Pedro Ramos Pinto (U Manchester)
Irene Martín (U Autónoma Madrid)
Harold Clarke (U T Dallas)
Raymond Duch (Oxford U)

Closing the morning session on the 18th, we'll have Ambassador Nuno Brito, Ambassador of Portugal in the USA. Closing the afternoon session, we'll have Minister Antonio de Lecea, Principal Advisor on Economic and Financial Affairs at the EU Delegation in the USA.

Full programme here. Kind support from the Luso-American Development Foundation and from the Endesa Foundation.

And here's the paper I'll be presenting on the 2011 Portuguese elections. Comments very welcome.

by Pedro Magalhães

Bleeding stopped?

Posted April 3rd, 2012 at 7:59 pm4 Comments

Added two new polls to the graph, Eurosondagem and Marktest. PSD seems pretty stable in the last three polls. But it's just three polls...


by Pedro Magalhães

Eurosondagem, 8-13 Março, N=1021, Tel.

Posted March 16th, 2012 at 4:18 pm4 Comments

PSD: 36%
PS: 29.6%
CDS-PP: 12%
CDU: 8.5%
BE: 6.9%

Source.

by Pedro Magalhães

Polls in Portugal since the June 2011 elections

Posted March 13th, 2012 at 3:49 pm4 Comments

With the latest Aximage poll, this is where we stand in terms of voting intentions since the June 2011 elections. A linear trend instead of fancier stuff just seemed simple and informative enough.




















Bad news for the President too. At Aximage, 60% disapproval. In the latest Marktest, 61% disapproval. Yikes! In the latest Eurosondagem, much better, but still declining pretty steeply. Sure, everybody in power suffers with a bad economy, but it's clear that there's more to this.

by Pedro Magalhães

Elections in Europe since 2004

Posted March 12th, 2012 at 10:02 pm4 Comments

This is from a paper I'm still writing with Josep Colomer, but the figures seemed so interesting I couldn't resist sharing them even before the paper's finished. Here's the relative change for the party of the incumbent Prime Minister in comparison with the previous election, for all legislative elections from 2004 to 2011 in all EU27 + Iceland and Croatia.



And this is the same splitting the PM's parties in Left (<5) vs. Right (>5), on the basis of 0-10 expert scores that can be obtained in the Parlgov website.




by Pedro Magalhães

Finally, a clear and objective explanation of the Portuguese economic crisis

Posted March 2nd, 2012 at 2:56 pm4 Comments

"Labour and capital were diverted into activities, such as law, construction, health and government, that are sheltered from foreign competition. The number of lawyers increased by 48% between 2000 and 2010. The public sector grew fast. 'All these people went to study film-making and sociology and then got jobs with the government,' says Pedro Santa Clara of Lisbon’s Nova University. Productivity stagnated."

You can find this and more in an obscure publication called The Economist. Let's hope this sociology and film-making people getting government jobs problem is addressed in a revised version of the Troika memorandum.

by Pedro Magalhães

Killing time on election nights.

Posted March 1st, 2012 at 4:49 pm4 Comments