Pedro Magalhães

Margens de Erro

PSD and PS in the polls

Posted February 13th, 2012 at 3:43 pm4 Comments

Three new polls since the last time we looked at this: from Marktest, Aximage, and Eurosondagem.

The advantage of the PSD over the PS is now estimated at 7.5 points by Aximage (down from 8.2 in January), at 12.4 points by Marktest (down from 25.7 in November) and at 5 points by Eurosondagem (down from 6.1 in January).

by Pedro Magalhães

Yet another piece of the Greek puzzle

Posted February 10th, 2012 at 5:53 pm4 Comments

Latest polls in Greece:

Epikaira (comparison with last election result):

New Democracy: 30.5% (-3)
PASOK: 12% (-32.1)
Laos: 6% (+0.4)
Democratic Left: 13% (new party)
KKE: 12.5% (+5)
Coalition of the radical left: 12.5% (+7.9)

Skai/Ekathimerini (comparison with last election result):

New Democracy: 31% (-2.5)
PASOK: 8% (-35.9)
Laos: 5% (-0.6)
Democratic Left: 18% (new party)
KKE: 12.5% (+5)
Coalition of the radical left: 12%  (+7.4)
Chrysi Avgi: 3% (+2.5)

12% for PASOK would be the worst result for the Socialists ever, even worse than the 13.6% of the 1974 elections, the first after the end of the military junta. In these polls, the parties to the left of PASOK represent about 40% of the vote. And Chrysi Avgi is, well, this.

by Pedro Magalhães

PSD and PS in the Portuguese polls

Posted January 23rd, 2012 at 10:41 pm4 Comments

So few polls have been conducted in the more than 6 months since the general election in Portugal that one has to feel discomfort in analyzing them. And yet, two things seem relatively clear: in spite of dramatic austerity policies, PSD retains lead; and in spite of retaining lead, such lead is clearly diminishing. I guess you can take this and spin it as you prefer.

Data taken from here.

by Pedro Magalhães


Posted January 19th, 2012 at 5:26 pm4 Comments

Daqui a minutos deve estar a começar a minha apresentação na conferência sobre os resultados do Barómetro da Qualidade da Democracia, no ICS. Especulo, porque não estou lá, mas sim em Washington. Mas vou apresentar na mesma, assim:

Quem não puder lá estar e tiver interesse, aproveite. O som da minha voz é-me quase intolerável e foi das coisas que mais me custou fazer na vida. Mas por outro lado, se correr bem, é bem possível que nunca mais compareça fisicamente a uma conferência.

by Pedro Magalhães

Gustav Leonhardt, 1928-2012

Posted January 18th, 2012 at 5:12 am4 Comments

O primeiro CD que comprei na minha vida foi este, talvez 1984. Calhou ter entrado no Bach com a ajuda dele, e não calhou nada mal. A partir daí nunca mais os larguei, um e outro. Se houver paraíso estão a conversar sobre fugas ou afinações.

by Pedro Magalhães


Posted January 10th, 2012 at 3:14 pm4 Comments

In January 19th, the Barometer of the Quality of Democracy in Portugal holds its third conference, presenting a series of papers on the subject, partially based on a survey conducted last July.

And by the way, later in the year (April 17th-18th), the Department of Government of Georgetown University and the BMW Center for German & European Studies are organizing a conference on "Crisis, Voting, and Protesting in Europe", with a special focus on Spain, Portugal, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, and Italy, part of a series of conferences and events entitled The Political Consequences of Economic Crisis.

by Pedro Magalhães

It is now painfully clear that a big part of the music I was ever going to instinctively enjoy for the rest of my life was defined sometime around 1984

Posted December 23rd, 2011 at 2:49 pm4 Comments

Well, maybe 1983.

by Pedro Magalhães

Funniest bit so far in Kahneman’s "Thinking, Fast and Slow"

Posted December 22nd, 2011 at 2:53 pm4 Comments

"One day in the early 1970s, Amos handed me a mimeographed essay by a Swiss economist named Bruno Frey, which discussed the psychological assumptions of economic theory. I vividly remember the color of the cover: dark red. Bruno Frey barely recalls writing the piece, but I can still recite its first sentence: 'The agent of economic theory is rational, selfish, and his tastes do not change.'

I was astonished."

by Pedro Magalhães

Havel, Soares, and a Renault 21

Posted December 19th, 2011 at 12:58 pm4 Comments


"A short while later I’m standing at the entrance to the Street of the Alchemists — the street where Kafka used to write, in the heart of the Hradcany. I’m watching a bizarre little scene as Vaclav Havel’s chauffeur drives the Presidential limousine slowly across the same, small square I walked across when I was here three years ago. The chauffeur is using the big, black official car — a Russian Zil — to brush back a crowd of reverent tourists who are trying to touch Havel’s little Renault, a personal gift from President Mario Soares of Portugal. The chauffeur drives the Zil slowly but firmly into the knot of visitors until they disperse, then he backs the limo across the square to its parking place and sits there waiting until he has to do it all over again. The Presidential chauffeur has little else to do, for Havel doesn’t travel in the Zil at all. He loves his little Renault and drives it himself. Someone has stuck a big red heart on its windshield, love-notes are scrawled in lipstick across the rear window, and affectionate messages are pasted down the Renault’s sides."

Here. The car is displayed at the National Technical Museum in Prague. The picture was taken from tauma's photostream in Flickr.

by Pedro Magalhães

Combate de Blogs

Posted December 19th, 2011 at 11:08 am4 Comments

O Combate de Blogs nomeou o Margens de Erro para a categoria "melhor blog individual" de 2011. Obrigado!

by Pedro Magalhães