Pedro Magalhães

Polls European Elections, Portugal

As far as I can tell, there are five published polls on the EP elections in Portugal:

1. Two by Aximage, here and here.

2. Two by Pitagórica, here and here.

3. And one by Eurosondagem, here.

The table shows the voting intentions, in some cases with the simple operation of redistributing the undecided voters proportionally through the valid options. There’s also an average, completely run of the mill stuff.

sondagens europeias

So, I don’t know about you, but:

1. There’s a range of about 6 points in the reported results for the PSD+CDS vote, and a spectacular 10 point range for the PS.

2. The coalition is ahead in 3 polls (by non-significant margins) and the PS is ahead in 2 (by a significant margin in one of them), although it may be relevant that these two are the most recent ones.

3. Based on this dispersion and on the previous track record of European election polls in Portugal, I would say we know two things on the basis of these data: the coalition and the PS will both have more votes than the CDU or the BE and the CDU will have more votes than the BE. That’s about it. Comments?

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