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Pedro Magalhães

Portuguese presidential election polls

Very few so far, at least with the definitive roster of candidates:

presidenciais 11 dez

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, probably the best known politician in the country who does not currently hold any major office (he has been a political pundit on television for 15 years, after having presided over the PSD, which he joined very early on, in 1974), has a huge advantage over everybody else, with most recent polls giving him well above the 50% majority he needs to avoid a second round. He’s endorsed by the parties on the right.

More data from the Catholic University poll out today:

Marcelo (the colloquial first name treatment is common in his case, although journalists call him “Professor”) gets almost every single voter of the parties on the right, but he also makes serious inroads in the electorates of the major parties on the left. For an hypothetical second round, any of the major opponents is equally pulverized.

I wouldn’t be surprised if these polls end up representing the high mark of Marcelo’s bid for the presidency. Things are bound to become more complicated as the campaign progresses. Partisans and partisanship will be activated, and Marcelo has to debate the other candidates, which may lead to him being asked actual questions (so far, journalists have treated him with the reverence due to a senior colleague). But he remains, by very very far, the favorite.

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