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Pedro Magalhães

Polls since the 2011 election

LOWESS line uses a 25% bandwidth. Everything pretty much the same as in October, except that PS’s edge over PSD is now clearer, at about 6 points.


  1. pvilela says:

    It would be interesting to know the evolution of the numbers of “intend to vote” “do not intend to vote”

  2. I would like to see also another graph – or a table – taking the past 5 elections or so, how long it takes until the winning party stops being the one receiving the highest vote intention in polls. From the 2011 election it took roughly a year; from the 2009 election (picture in an earlier post from you, it sounded slightly less than a year), from the 2005 election there was no reversion, and prior?

  3. Pedro, only now I realized you had a comment here. The response to your question is unfortunately easy: prior to 2005, I have no data! But that is being taken care of as we speak in a project here at ICS.

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