A new poll from Pitagórica, here. All polls so far (that I know of) below (OBN is other parties, blank and null votes):

Last three polls have the Socialists ahead of the center-right coalition, so this is starting to look like a coherent signal and to fall in line with what I suppose is the basic expectation (govts punished in second-order elections).

On the other hand, recall 2004: there, the PSD/CDS-PP center-right coalition had 33.3%, a loss of 16.6 points in relation to the score of the two parties in the preceding legislative elections (2002). Now, a similar punishment in relation to the 2011 legislative election would put the coalition at about 32%. We’re close to that in recent polls of two of the companies, but not at all in the results of the third. For the Socialists, the 44.5% in the 2004 EP elections seem far away, but let’s wait and see what else emerges.

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