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Pedro Magalhães

Referendo Irlanda

É já no dia 12. A sondagem mais recente revela que a indecisão começa a repartir-se, algo mais a favor do “Não”. Mas a vantagem do “Sim” permanece, e parece, pelo menos, mais sólida do que em Abril: é agora de 8 pontos.

Muito importante:

Analysts said the poll figures suggest that the ‘Yes’ camp will prevail with a high voter turnout, but the treaty could be rejected if the turnout is poor, because anti-EU voters tend to be much more motivated to get to the polls. This is exactly what happened in the first Nice referendum. It was shot down the first time following a poor turnout in 2001, but approved on the back of a much higher turnout in 2003.

E o que diz a sondagem?

The one aspect of the poll that will bring some relief to the Yes supporters is that when vote intention is analysed only by those who say they are very likely to vote (8 or more out of 10), they do secure a slightly higher 42% of the vote. This is 1% more than among all voters, and gives the Yes campaign a little more breathing space as they fight to ensure the treaty is passed in just under three weeks time. At present it will be vital that the Yes camp mobilise supporters to make the effort to actually vote on polling day.

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