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Pedro Magalhães

Referendo Irlanda

Treaty “No” vote remain a threat
In order to better understand where campaigners need to concentrate their efforts we have looked in more detail at the poll results. This more in depth analysis of voting intentions, suggests that those more likely to vote No tend to come from younger 18-44 year old male social demographic groups where, when re-proportioned to exclude Don’t Knows, the No vote wins out with more than half (54%) of voters claiming they will vote No. While those living in Connaught and Ulster regions are also far more likely to state they will vote No. It is these groups perhaps that the Yes campaigners need to target for conversion, and also that the No campaigners need to encourage to turn out to vote. In terms of further education on the issues involved in ratification of the Lisbon Reform Treaty, it appears that middle aged 25-44 female social demographic groups are most likely to state that they don’t know how they will vote, with almost half (49%) claiming this is the case. As such both campaigns will need to target this important group in an aim to win over potential floating voters.

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