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Pedro Magalhães

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Marktest, 17-20 Sept, N=805, Tel.

PS: 29.6% (+3.8)PSD: 20.2% (-6.5)CDU: 10.1% (+0.2)BE: 8.6% (+1.7)CDS-PP: 5.2% (+0.8)Values in parentheses from previous July 2012 poll. Here.

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Before the debates: polls and forecasts

Two days before the first debate, where do we stand in terms of election forecasts for the US presidential election?1. Polls: polls are not forecasts, but they are of course informative. One obvious a ...

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Muito bom

O que tenho lido sobre as eleições americanas: uma selecção.

1. O Pollster.com, para os últimos números das sondagens nacionais e estaduais e o que implicam para o colégio eleitoral, e os comentários de Mark Blumenthal (aqui sobre o "post-convention" bounce ...

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More poll results and caveats

Starting with the caveats, note that in a "poll-poor" environment such as Portugal, it's understandable that a single poll gets a lot of attention. But let's not forget that a poll is just a poll. And ...

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Católica, 15-17 Set, N=1,132, Face to face

PS: 31% (-2)PSD: 24% (-12)CDU: 13% (+4)BE: 11% (+2)CDS-PP: 7% (+1)Others: 3%Source. The comparison is with the last Católica poll, from May 2012.

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Eurosondagem, 10-13 Sept., n=1037, Tel.

PS: 33.7% (+0.7)PSD: 33.0% (-1.1)CDS-PP: 10.3% (+0.2)CDU: 9.3% (+0.5)BE: 7.0% (+0.4)

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Aximage, 3-6 Sept, n=600, Tel.

First public poll since August 17th, and first poll by this company since early July. Fieldwork predates the announcements by the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance of new austerity measures, ...

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Transatlantic Trends: alguns resultados

Os resultados do inquérito Transatlantic Trends, apoiado em Portugal pela FLAD, são divulgados em inglês e suficientemente conhecidos lá fora. Logo, passo para português neste post. Os inquérito ...

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