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Pedro Magalhães

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Havel, Soares, and a Renault 21

"A short while later I’m standing at the entrance to the Street of the Alchemists — the street where Kafka used to write, in the heart of the Hradcany. I’m watching a bizarre little scene as Vac ...

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Combate de Blogs

O Combate de Blogs nomeou o Margens de Erro para a categoria "melhor blog individual" de 2011. Obrigado!

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Hitch on Portugal 1974, from "Hitch-22: A Memoir" (2010)

"The cultural element made it seem as if the best of 1968 was still relevant. One of the precipitating prerevolutionary moments had been the publication of a feminist manifesto by three women, all of ...

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Guillermo O’Donnell (1936-2011)

In 1998, I invited Guillermo O'Donnell and Richard Gunther for a conference at the Catholic University in Lisbon, in the context of their (slightly stingy) debate about "democratic consolidation". I w ...

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Marktest, 15-19 Nov., N=804, Tel.

Voting intention:PSD: 45.4% (+3.8)PS: 19.7% (=)CDU: 7.9% (-2.6)CDS-PP: 5.0% (-0.3)BE: 4.1% (-0.1)Others+Blank: 17.9% (-0.8)PM approval: 45.5% (up more than 9 pts from October). All results here.

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Spain: results, polls, and forecast

PP obtained 44.6% of the vote and 186 (53%) MP's, up 4.7 points in votes and 9 points in MP's in relation to 2008. The results basically match (slightly surpassing) those of 2000, when PP had obtained ...

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Eurosondagem, 10-15 Nov., N=1025, Tel.

PSD: 36.3% (-0.6)PS: 29.6% (+0.4)CDS-PP: 12.1% (-0.4)CDU: 9.0% (+0.2)BE: 6.1% (-0.2)Here. Changes in evaluations of party leaders and institutions are equally small. Interestingly, leaders are mostly ...

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Spain: the last polls

The Spanish election is less than a week away. In the last few days, several polls coming out from several different sources. Here's the updated graph, for the three major parties, since Rubalcaba bec ...

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Polls on the Spanish debate

12 million people watched the debate, for a 54% share, down 5 points and 1 million from the last Zapatero/Rajoy debate (which was, however, the most watched debate in Spanish democratic history). Man ...

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Spanish polls update

New polls:1. By Sigma Dos, with fieldwork ending October 31st, showing almost no change in relation to previous poll finished 3 days before.2. The new CIS study is out. The last one, from July, had PP ...

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