A quick look at the French 2nd round polls. Data taken from Sondages en France, 2nd round voting intentions for Hollande, six pollsters (Ifop, Ipsos, Opinion-Way, Harris, BVA, CSA), 63 polls total sin ...
The last French polls did well, by comparative standards at least. In 2007, no pollster managed to estimate the vote for the first four candidates with an average absolute error below 2 points. In som ...
PSD: 35.3% (-0.7%)PS: 30.5% (0.9%)CDS-PP: 10.7% (-1.3%)CDU: 9.1% (+0.6%)BE: 6.4% (-0.5%)Aqui. Para a jornalista Cristina Figueiredo, do Expresso, mudanças abaixo de um ponto percentual numa sondagem ...
"Imagine que tem um problema na canalização da sua casa. Chama um técnico que lhe diz que terá de pagar 100€ pelo arranjo. Se quiser factura, serão 123€. Pedia ou não factura?Pedia: 31%Não ...
The April issue of French Politics (ungated) is dedicated to several fun articles forecasting the 2012 French elections. Nadeau, Lewis-Beck, and Bélanger, using simultaneous equations to deal, in the ...
This is the title of a conference jointly organized by the Department of Government and the BMW Center for German and European studies of Georgetown University. April 17th (from 9.30am to 3.00pm) and ...
With the latest Aximage poll, this is where we stand in terms of voting intentions since the June 2011 elections. A linear trend instead of fancier stuff just seemed simple and informative enough.Bad ...
This is from a paper I'm still writing with Josep Colomer, but the figures seemed so interesting I couldn't resist sharing them even before the paper's finished. Here's the relative change for the par ...
